Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 264 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AS 264 · PDX → SNA

departs 2:48 PM PT · arrives 5:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↑ Fridays in October are usually busier than average

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 264 · PDX → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?