Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 319 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 319 · SEA → SJC

departs 3:42 PM PT · arrives 5:53 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 319 · SEA → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?