Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 393 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AS 393 · SEA → FAT

departs 5:25 PM PT · arrives 7:36 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FAT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 393 · SEA → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?