Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 413 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 413 · ORD → PDX

departs 7:20 AM CT · arrives 9:45 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility3.66667 mi Precip0.42 in

PDX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 413 · ORD → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?