Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 427 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 427 · PDX → SEA

departs 9:19 AM PT · arrives 10:21 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ 9am departures from PDX are usually not late

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 427 · PDX → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?