Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 451 LANDED 10:38 PM PT, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

AS 451 · CVG → SEA

took off 9:12 PM ET · landed 10:38 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ CVG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.35 in

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 451 · CVG → SEA

Odds over time