Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 485SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Today
AS 485 · PDX → SMF
departs 8:15 AM PT · arrives 9:48 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
6%chance · ±0 pts−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREVery high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.