Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 504 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AS 504 · PDX → SFO

departs 5:36 PM PT · arrives 7:30 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 504 · PDX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?