Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 519 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AS 519 · SAT → SEA

departs 7:02 AM CT · arrives 9:25 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ 7am departures from SAT are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip0.76 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 519 · SAT → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?