Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 51 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 51 · ANC → BRW

departs 2:12 PM AKT · arrives 4:10 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at BRW more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BRW?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at BRW that day

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ BRW usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ANC

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

BRW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 51 · ANC → BRW

Odds over time

How late will it get to BRW?