Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 523 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AS 523 · SEA → SJC

departs 9:43 PM PT · arrives 11:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +35 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
45%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SJC that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 523 · SEA → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?