Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 570 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 570 · LAS → SFO

departs 10:02 AM PT · arrives 11:43 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 570 · LAS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?