Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 580 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AS 580 · BUR → SEA

departs 1:21 PM PT · arrives 4:03 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ BUR is prone to delays

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 580 · BUR → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?