Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 626 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 626 · SEA → HNL

departs 10:55 AM PT · arrives 2:04 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 626 · SEA → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?