Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 640 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AS 640 · TPA → SEA

departs 7:08 AM ET · arrives 10:13 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from TPA are usually not late

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.54 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 640 · TPA → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?