Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 641
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 641 · TUS → SEA
departs 2:29 PM MT · arrives 5:44 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
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How late will it get to SEA?
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On time or early
77%
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15–30 min late
11%
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30 min–1 hour late
7%
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1–2 hours late
2%
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Over 2 hours late
2%
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Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.