Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 647 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AS 647 · STL → SEA

departs 7:56 PM CT · arrives 10:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from STL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 647 · STL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?