Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 659 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 659 · SEA → ANC

departs 1:38 PM PT · arrives 4:20 PM AKT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 659 · SEA → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?