Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 780 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AS 780 · DFW → SAN

departs 7:24 PM CT · arrives 8:29 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±11 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 2.1 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SAN that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip2.13 in

SAN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 780 · DFW → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?