Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 781SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS
AS 781 · SEA → BWI
departs 10:22 PM PT · arrives 6:27 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 99h before departure
Typical odds
Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Friday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
22%chance · ±7 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARELow. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
77%
15 min–1 hour late
19%
Over 1 hour late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.