Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 791 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 791 · SEA → SFO

departs 5:36 PM PT · arrives 7:52 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±6 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 55% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 791 · SEA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?