Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 816 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AS 816 · HNL → SAN

departs 12:39 PM HT · arrives 9:07 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±4 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.16 in

SAN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 816 · HNL → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?