Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 847
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 847 · OAK → HNL
departs 8:25 AM PT · arrives 10:59 AM HT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
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How late will it get to HNL?
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On time or early
82%
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15–30 min late
7%
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30 min–1 hour late
6%
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1–2 hours late
2%
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Over 2 hours late
1%
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Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.