Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 848 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 848 · HNL → OAK

departs 12:15 PM HT · arrives 8:25 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↑ 12pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at OAK that day

↓ OAK usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.23 in

OAK (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 848 · HNL → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?