Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 853 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 853 · HNL → LAX

departs 11:58 PM HT · arrives 8:23 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +28 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
41%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.28 in

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 853 · HNL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?