Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 883 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 883 · PDX → LIH

departs 8:14 AM PT · arrives 11:08 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ LIH is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at PDX that day

↓ 8am departures from PDX are usually not late

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

LIH (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 883 · PDX → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?