Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 932 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AS 932 · OGG → LAS

departs 10:36 AM HT · arrives 7:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ 10am departures from OGG are usually not late

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 932 · OGG → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?