Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1086
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
B6 1086 · MCO → BUF
departs 6:25 AM ET · arrives 9:06 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 11%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BUF that day
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from MCO are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.