Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
B6 1511 · JFK → LAS
departs 10:00 PM ET · arrives 12:49 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.04 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.