Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
B6 1538 · JFK → MVY
departs 2:59 PM ET · arrives 4:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 22%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 29%
Wed 10/7 26%
Thu 10/8 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MVY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MVY?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
MVY usually runs smoothly
↓
JFK is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
MVY (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.