Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1126 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

DL 1126 · SDF → ATL

departs 6:54 PM ET · arrives 8:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SDF that day

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ SDF usually runs smoothly

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.59 in

ATL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1126 · SDF → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?