Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1164
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
DL 1164 · MCO → LGA
departs 10:48 AM ET · arrives 1:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 16%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 17%
Thu 10/8 17%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
−35 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −35 pts in 24h
−35 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −35 pts in 24h
−35 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.