Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1166 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

DL 1166 · SAT → JFK

departs 12:37 PM CT · arrives 5:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.70 in

JFK (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1166 · SAT → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?