Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1223 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

DL 1223 · ATL → IAH

departs 4:25 PM ET · arrives 5:39 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ 4pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1223 · ATL → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?