DL 12 · MEL → LAX

departs 9:53 AM AEDT · arrives 8:03 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 26h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEL

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at LAX that day

↓ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MEL (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 12 · MEL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?