Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
DL 1409 · SLC → RDU
departs 5:30 PM MT · arrives 11:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.