Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1421
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
DL 1421 · LAX → SFO
departs 7:00 AM PT · arrives 8:21 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 13%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 11%
Thu 10/8 17%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
−21 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −21 pts in 24h
−21 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.