Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1457 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

DL 1457 · ATL → TPA

departs 6:22 PM ET · arrives 7:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±5 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

TPA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1457 · ATL → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?