Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1509 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

DL 1509 · ATL → HOU

departs 8:41 AM ET · arrives 9:45 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HOU?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at HOU that day

↑ HOU is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ Arrivals into HOU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

HOU (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1509 · ATL → HOU

Odds over time

How late will it get to HOU?