Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1513 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

DL 1513 · BOS → MCO

departs 8:16 PM ET · arrives 11:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility9.33333 mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.26 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1513 · BOS → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?