Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1523
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
DL 1523 · SDF → ATL
departs 10:00 AM ET · arrives 11:24 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 16%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at SDF that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
10am departures from SDF are usually not late
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.32 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.