Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1541
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Tomorrow
DL 1541 · DTW → STL
departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 8:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Fri 10/2
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.89 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.