Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1628
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
DL 1628 · SEA → LAX
departs 7:15 AM PT · arrives 10:05 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 17%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 8%
Thu 10/8 12%
Fri 10/9 10%
Sat 10/10 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.