Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
DL 1638 · PBI → JFK
departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 10:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 39%
Mon 10/5 25%
Fri 10/9 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave PBI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PBI
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
PBI is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
PBI (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.