Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
DL 1686 · DTW → PHL
departs 5:40 PM ET · arrives 7:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 1.79 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.