Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2109
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
DL 2109 · LGA → IAH
departs 6:29 PM ET · arrives 9:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 46%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 24%
Thu 10/8 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±0 pts
+33 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
63%
Arrive 1h+ late
38%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +33 pts in 24h
+33 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +28 pts in 24h
+28 pts
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 1.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.