Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2412
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
DL 2412 · SRQ → LGA
departs 2:30 PM ET · arrives 5:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 28%
Thu 10/8 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−22 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −22 pts in 24h
−22 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −21 pts in 24h
−21 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SRQ that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
SRQ usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SRQ (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.