Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2531
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
DL 2531 · TPA → LGA
departs 11:10 AM ET · arrives 1:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 22%
Thu 10/8 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
11am departures from TPA are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.