Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2585 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

DL 2585 · SLC → SMF

departs 5:35 PM MT · arrives 6:16 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC

Weather at each end

SLC (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2585 · SLC → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?