Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2642 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

DL 2642 · ATL → PHL

departs 10:56 PM ET · arrives 12:59 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2642 · ATL → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?